Prime Day is shaping up to be an even bigger shopping event this year, and back-to-school categories are expected to benefit the most. 

New data released yesterday by Adobe Analytics projects that US consumers will spend a whopping US$23.8 billion online during the shopping event from July 8 to 11—which is up 28.4% from last year. 

The data/analytics company is predicting a run on backpacks and lunchboxes (classic targets for licensing), with sales up 225% for these product categories compared with last month’s daily average. Adobe says there will also be huge sales upticks in kids apparel (200%) and general school/office supplies (180%), which are expected to beat out even big-ticket items like eReaders and TVs. 

Adobe’s projections seem to line up with data released in June by researcher SuperAwesome, which found that parents planned to spend an average of US$455 on their kids’ back-to-school needs this year. That’s US$11 more than they spent in 2024. 

Back-to-school sales could also get a bump from Walmart and Target, which are running competing sales at the same time. Investment research firm Zacks is projecting that these copycat efforts could drive even more early back-to-school shopping by appealing to parents shopping on a budget. 

In addition to buying more this Prime Day, the way consumers shop may look a bit different, too. Adobe estimates that shopping on mobile devices will make up more than half of all online sales (52.5%), up from 49.2% last year. And mobile shopping is increasingly becoming the place where impulse buys are happening, according to its data. 

This year’s budget-conscious Prime Day consumers are increasingly expected to go the “buy now pay later” route—which could drive roughly US$1.8 billion to US$1.9 billion of the overall online spend. And the fact that e-commerce prices in many categories have been dropping over the last two years—they were down by 2% year-over-year in May, in fact—should also help this Prime Day be a big one, Adobe predicts.

Image courtesy of note thanun via Unsplash.